Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Solar Cycle Prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the sta...
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A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
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A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month~by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
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A solar activity precursor technique of spotless event has been currently used to predict the strengths and the times of rise of the 11-year coming cycles. This simple statistical method has been previously applied to predict the maximum amplitudes and the times of rises of cycles 22 and 23. The results obtained are successful for both cycles. A developed version of the suggested method was pre...
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We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the az-imuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the equator as a pre-dicto...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate
سال: 2020
ISSN: 2115-7251
DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2020051